Portfolio

It's hard to find anything to complain about in the first two month's performance of my 10 Clean Energy Stocks for 2019 model portfolio.  Unfortunately, I'm about to go on vacation and don't have time to do an update on all the earnings reports that have come out over the last two weeks.  I will try to get to them individually as I have time. Strategically, I'd like to say I'm getting very nervous about this market rally, and think that readers should be taking profits opportunistically and increasing your cash positions.

by Tom Konrad Ph.D., CFA Almost every major index fell in 2018.  My Ten Clean Energy Stocks model portfolio and the Green Global Equity Income Portfolio (GGEIP), the real-money portfolio that I manage were not exceptions.  Still, I'm satisfied with their performance: the model portfolio lost only 1.3 percent for the year, while GGEIP was down 2.6 percent.  That's well ahead of most indexes, including my benchmarks YLCO (down 7.8 percent) and SDY (down 4.1%.)  These benchmarks are intended to reflect the performance of clean energy dividend stocks and general of dividend stocks, respectively.  Non-income oriented indexes such as the...

by Tom Konrad Ph.D., CFA Looking forward to 2019, I'm more optimistic than I have been since the start of 2016, in the wake of the popping of the YieldCo Bubble in late 2015. The bear market that started in late 2018 seems like it's far from over, but I expect in early 2019 will see it enter a less chaotic phase.  After the wild declines and swings of late 2018, I expect investors will begin the new year with an eye to safety more than growth.  This means that the clean energy income stocks which are my focus should outperform...

by Tom Konrad Ph.D., CFA At the start of November, I abandoned my short-term bearish stance on the market, writing "I’m not confident that the correction is over, but we seem to be heading into a temporary lull, and so I’m going to abandon cash as my top pick for November."  This turned out to be a good call, with my Ten Clean Energy Stocks model portfolio up 4.3% for the month, slightly behind its broad dividend income benchmark, SDY, which was up 4.9%.    Its clean energy income benchmark YLCO gained 1.6%, as did the private portfolio I manage, the...

by Tom Konrad Ph.D., CFA Last week, I neglected to discuss Terraform Power (NASD: TERP) in the third quarter update on the other ten clean energy stocks for 2018.  I did not notice the omission until after the post had been published, so I decided to write a quick follow-up this week after I had a chance to digest the earnings announcements (including TERP's) which were scheduled for later in the week. Stock discussion Clearway Energy, Inc (NYSE: CWEN and CWEN/A) 12/31/17 Price: $18.90 / $18.85.  Annual Dividend: $1.133(6.0%). Expected 2018 dividend: $1.26(6.7%)  Low Target: $14.  High Target: $25.  10/31/18 Price: $19.61/$19.42  ...

Tom Konrad Ph.D., CFA After a fairly brutal September and October my Ten Clean Energy Stocks model portfolio is barely hanging on to positive territory for the year (up 2.4%) as is the private portfolio I manage, the Green Global Equity Income Portfolio (GGEIP, up 0.8%).  Yet I can take comfort in superior relative performance, since my broad dividend income benchmark SDY is now down 0.1% for the year, and the clean energy income benchmark YLCO has fallen 5.8%.  All returns are total return after fees and dividends. The strong relative performance in a weak market is most likely due to...

As you can see from the chart, September was a tough month for my model portfolio of Ten Clean Energy Stocks for 2018.  Seaspan (SSW) fell back on trade war fears and Green Plains Partners (GPP) fell on ethanol market weakness caused by retaliatory ethanol tariffs and the Trump EPA's continued undermining of the Renewable Fuel Standard.  I'm less sure why Covanta (CVA) is down, but Clearway Energy's (CWEN and CWEN-A formerly NRG Yield) small decline is due to a recent secondary offering. Two of these (CVA and GPP) were my top picks last month, while the third was Terraform Power (TERP). ...

Tom Konrad Ph.D., CFA July and August saw some mild recovery for the stock market after a difficult first half of 2018.  Clean energy income stocks continue to lag the broader market, but my Ten Clean Energy Stocks model portfolio has managed to maintain its lead over its broad market benchmark. Through August 31st, the model portfolio is up 7.5%, compared to its broad dividend income benchmark SDY, which is up 5.3%.  Its clean energy income benchmark YLCO is down 1.2, even after dividend income.  The private portfolio I manage, the Green Global Equity Income Portfolio (GGEIP), is slightly behind the...

The first half of 2018 has been difficult for most investors, including clean energy investors and dividend income investors. Through June, my broad dividend income benchmark SDY lost 0.6%, while my clean energy income benchmark YLCO lost 4.7%, including dividend income. My picks were also down for most of the year, finally struggling back into positive territory at the end of May.  They finished the first half up a solid 5.9%.  The real money strategy I manage, the Green Global Equity Income Portfolio (GGEIP), also squeaked in to positive territory by 1.2% at the end of June. Details of then stocks'...

Stay tuned for a full update next month, but it's nice to be back in the black... especially with the benchmarks still struggling.  Thanks to Enviva (EVA), Covanta (CVA), and Seaspan (SSW).  Until then, here's the May update, where I said EVA and CVA were two of my 3 top short term picks , and I commented that "I still think Seaspan has significant room to the upside." AY (at $18.91) and TERP (at $10.83) are my top short term picks right now. Disclosure: Long EVA, HIFR, GPP, BEP, TERP, PEGI, AY, NYLD, NYLD/A, CVA, SSW.

After a stormy winter for the broad market and clean energy stocks, including my picks, March and April brought relative calm.  Better yet, my model portfolio has rebounded from its February lows, although its benchmarks (SDY for the broad market of income stocks and YLCO for clean energy income stocks) have mostly been treading water. The gains were led by two of my less conventional clean energy picks, Seaspan (SSW) and InfraREIT (HIFR).  Seaspan owns (mostly very efficient) container-ships, which most people would not associate with clean energy, but which I include because they they are much less energy intensive...

Tom Konrad Ph.D., CFA While the broad market has been turbulent for the start of 2018, clean energy stocks have fared worse than most. The Trump administration's anti-environmental efforts had little effect on clean energy stocks in 2017 (it was a banner year for this model portfolio). So far, this year has been quite different. Last year, investors seemed unfazed by the chaos in Washington, but with the single "win" of the Republican tax give-away to corporations, investors now seem to think that Trump may indeed be able to deliver on his polluter-funded agenda. Income-oriented stocks have also been taking a...

by Tom Konrad Ph.D., CFA Sustainable infrastructure financier Hannon Armstrong (NYSE:HASI) is not in my Ten Clean Energy Stocks model portfolio for the first year since its IPO in 2013. I still love the company and its business model, but I have become concerned about its short term prospects. Dividend Disappointment? In my last update on the 2017 portfolio, I wrote, “Sustainable infrastructure and clean energy financier Hannon Armstrong reported earnings on November 1st. The headline numbers were lower than expected, but for a very good reason. The company has spent the last few months locking in low interest rates by refinancing its...

Tom Konrad Ph.D., CFA Ten Years of "10 Clean Energy Stocks." A 38% total return in 2017 is the one to beat. I started blogging about investing in clean energy stocks in 2005.  At the time, I had just started an independent investment advisory practice, and thought blogging was a good way to impress people with my knowledge of clean energy.  I don't know how many people I impressed, but the clients were hardly pounding down the door. What I did learn, however, was that I loved writing about clean energy from the perspective of a stock investor.  Because I was...

By Tom Konrad Ph.D., CFA 2017 is turning into a second banner year in a row for my “Ten Clean Energy Stocks” model portfolio. I expected at best to make high single digit returns after the impressive 20% (while my benchmark fell 4%). Instead, the portfolio produced a 36.8% total return while its benchmark is up 19.5% with only four trading days left in the year. Such returns are obviously cause for celebration, and also for profit taking. I plan to replace at least five of this year's list with new stocks in the 2018 (tenth annual) “Clean Energy Stocks” model...