Portfolio

by Tom Konrad, Ph.D., CFA This monthly update for my Ten Clean Energy Stocks model portfolio is in two parts.  I published my thoughts on the current market turmoil on March 2nd.  You can find them here.  I'm not even going to get into the Fed slashing interest rates like they were a furniture warehouse going out of business on March 3rd except to say that apparently they are more afraid of the effects of covid-19 on the economy than they are of appearing to panic. You can see overall performance for January and February in the following chart.  Not that...

by Tom Konrad, Ph.D., CFA On February 21st, I was helping an investment advisor I consult with pick stocks for a new client's portfolio.  He lamented that there were not enough stocks at good valuations. This is one of the hardest parts of being an investment advisor: a client expects the advisor to build a portfolio of stocks which should do well, but sometimes, especially in late stage bull markets, most stocks are overvalued.  I reminded him, "The Constitution does not guarantee anyone the right to good stock picks."  He agreed, but he still had to tell his client that...

by Tom Konrad, Ph.D., CFA January 2020- where do I start?  A year of market-shaking news in a month. The Brink of War The month started off with a literal bang when Trump decided that a good way to distract the public from his impeachment trial would be to try to start a war with Iran by assassinating one of Iran's top military leaders, Qassem Suleimani.  A week later, the world and markets heaved a collective sigh of relief when Iran decided that their honor had been satisfied with two missile strikes on US bases.  While Trump reported no casualties, Iran's Foreign...

by Tom Konrad Ph.D., CFA Sometimes it's good to be wrong. When I published the Ten Clean Energy Stocks For 2019 model portfolio on New Year's Day 2019, I thought we were likely in the beginning of a bear market.  With 20/20 hindsight, that was obviously wrong. I made the following predictions and observations: "he clean energy income stocks which are my focus should outperform riskier growth stocks."  "eep value investors will put a floor under the stock prices of these ten stocks." "I could also be wrong about the future course of this market."  "I have a history...

by Tom Konrad, Ph.D., CFA If it's tough to follow a winner, 2020 is going to be an especially tough year for my Ten Clean Energy Stocks model portfolio. I've been publishing lists of ten clean energy stocks that I think will do well in the year to come since 2008.  With a 46 percent total return, the 2019 list has had its best year since 2009, when it managed a 57 percent return by catching the rebound off the 2008 crash.  This year's returns were also achieved in the context of full- to over-valuation of most of the clean energy...

by Tom Konrad, Ph.D., CFA Over the last couple years, I've given paying subscribers a chance to see my annual list one trading day early.  I did not get it organized this year, but I just got an email from a past participant who was interested.  I initially said no, I'd rather be fair to all readers but then I thought maybe there are others who can benefit. I currently have a list of 11 stocks, which I will be narrowing down to 10 after the close on Dec 31st.  Anyone who forwards me (tom@thiswebsite.com) an email confirming a donation in...

by Tom Konrad Ph.D., CFA 2019 has become another blockbuster year for the Ten Clean Energy Stocks model portfolio and, to a lesser extent clean energy stocks and the broad stock market as well.  I'm frankly surprised to see the party continuing.  The continued spiking of the metaphorical punch bowl by the Federal Reserve with interest rate cuts certainly has a lot to do with it. I had expected those cuts to be both fewer and less effective. Which all goes to show that it's always a good idea to hedge one's bets in the stock market.  At least in part...

by Tom Konrad Ph.D., CFA Although valuations and political uncertainty have me spooked, October was another strong month for the stock market in general and clean energy income stocks in particular. While my broad income stock benchmark SDY added 1.6% for a year to date total gain of 19.6%.  My clean energy income stock benchmark YLCO did even better, 2.7% for October and 29.7% year to date.  The 10 Clean Energy Stocks model portfolio fell somewhere in between for the month (up 1.8%) but remains unchallenged for the year to date (40.7%).   My real-money managed strategy, GGEIP, lagged as I reduce...

by Tom Konrad Ph.D., CFA So far, my worries about stock market valuation and political turmoil have not turned into the stock market downturn I've been warning readers to prepare for. In fact, September has been a particularly sunny month for both clean energy stocks and the stock market in general.My broad income stock benchmark SDY was up 3.9% and the energy income stock benchmark YLCO rose 2.7% for the month, more than reversing August's declines. My 10 Clean Energy Stocks model portfolio accelerated upward by 5.3%, as did my real-money managed strategy, the Green Global Equity Income Portfolio(GGEIP), which...

by Tom Konrad Ph.D., CFA August 2019 saw economic warning signs flashing and a worsening trade war with China. Unsurprisingly, this led to weakness in most stock market indexes. My broad income stock benchmark SDY was down 2.4% and the energy income stock benchmark YLCO fell 0.3% for the month. Most of the stocks in my 10 Clean Energy Stocks model portfolio continued to buck the trend, with the portfolio as a whole gaining 2.2% for the month. My real-money managed strategy, GGEIP, also turned in a solid 1.9% gain. The strong performance of my portfolios probably rises from the falling interest...

by Tom Konrad Ph.D., CFA July 2019 was “marginally” the warmest month on record. Meanwhile, the stock market was also inching to new highs, and the real, sweltering evidence of climate change continues to let clean energy income stocks turn in a blistering performance. While my broad income stock benchmark SDY was up 16.0% through the end of July (0.9% for the month), my clean energy income stock benchmark YLCO is up 23.4% through July (0.4% for the month,)  My 10 Clean Energy Stocks model portfolio is up 28.3% (1.3%) and my real-money managed strategy, GGEIP, is up 26.4% (1.2%) for...

I missed my regular monthly update in early June because of vacation. In hindsight, early June looks like it was a good buying opportunity. The broad market of dividend stocks (represented by my benchmark SDY) falling six percent in May, only to rebound a similar amount in June. At the time, I would have continued to advise caution: “Sell the peaks” rather than “Buy the dips.” Particularly volatile stocks like European autoparts supplier Valeo (FR.PA) from this list would have generated even greater short term gains. But it would take more than a six percent market decline to transform this bear...

In April, my 10 clean energy stocks model portfolio continued to power ahead, despite the concerns about market valuation I expressed last month.  As I said at the time "me being nervous about the market is not much of an indicator that stocks are going to fall" at least in the short term.  So I continue to trim winning positions and increase my allocation to cash as stocks advance. Both the model portfolio and the Green Global Equity Income Portfolio (GGEIP) were up 4.5% and 3.6% respectively in April.  This was solidly ahead of their clean energy income benchmark YLCO...

by Tom Konrad Ph.D., CFA Covanta Holding Corp. (NYSE:CVA) 12/31/18 Price: $13.42.  Annual Dividend: $1.00. Expected 2019 dividend: $1.00.  Low Target: $13.  High Target: $25. 3/26/19 Price: $17.86. YTD Dividend: $0.25. YTD Yield: 1.9%  YTD Appreciation: 33.1% YTD Total Return: 34.9% Leading waste-to-energy operator Covanta's stock has been the second best performing holding in my 10 Clean Energy Stocks for 2019 model portfolio.  While in many ways the company is similar to the clean energy Yieldcos that dominate the model portfolio, it is different in that it develops its own projects, while most Yieldcos depend on a sponsor to develop projects which...

The first quarter of 2019 saw the market's largest quarterly gain in a decade, and my 10 clean energy stocks model portfolio outperformed both the broad market and the clean energy income ETF I use as a benchmark (see chart above.) Performance that strong makes me nervous, especially since the last time we saw gains like these it was the stock market rebound from the financial crisis.  In this case, while the market was down in the last quarter of 2018, it had only been enough of a decline to blow a little of the foam off the top of...

I'm trying something different and doing quick updates on individual stocks in my 10 Clean Energy Stocks model portfolio as I have time to write.  The portfolio as a whole has been accelerating with the instant torque of an electric vehicle this year (details here.)  I thought I'd start with the company that's newest to my readers, Valeo SA (FR.PA, VLEEF) 12/31/18 Price: €25.21/$28.20.  Annual Dividend: €1.25. Expected 2019 dividend: €1.25.  03/4/19 price: €29.13/$33.00.  YTD gain: 15.5% Euro/ 12.8% USD. I added this stock to the portfolio because it has great technology and and improving market share, but weak industry growth and overoptimistic management projections in 2018...